ECN 4505: Business Cycles
Class meets: TR 2:00-3:15pm
Instructor: Mukti P. Upadhyay
Coleman 2811, Phone: 581-3812
Off. hrs: mwf11-12, also by appointment
Hanke, Wichern, and Reitsch: Business Forecasting, 7th ed., 2001, Prentice Hall.
This book covers statistical techniques that we will apply to analyzing data and making forecasts. Since
the variables being analyzed and forecasted will be macroeconomic for the most part, we will also have
a good dose of macro theory, something that the text does not discuss, to go along with applications. You
will get handouts or references to books in the library for most of the macro material.
Two exams during the term, a final exam, and five or six computer/homework assignments will determine
your course grade. The three exams, equally weighted, will be 300 points and the assignments 100 points,
for the total course grade of 400. I usually curve the grades in exams so the grade distribution is more
favorable to students. In borderline cases, class participation and attendance may lead to grade adjustment
upward. And this should give everyone a strong incentive to attend the class on a regular basis.
Exam 1: Thursday, 2/20/03
Exam 2: Thursday, 4/3/03
Final Exam: Thursday, 5/8/03, 2:45-4:45pm
It is a good idea to develop a habit of reading the business/economic section of a good newspaper.
Reading the Economist for economic articles is probably the best. I might assign specific articles from
this weekly publication as well at various points. Some Conference Board statistics, such as consumer
confidence and leading economic indicators, will be particularly helpful in analyzing current trends in the
If you find the class too difficult despite your reading of the material, do not wait until a day or two
before the exam. Let us talk before it gets overwhelming. If you cannot make it to my office for your
needs, send me an email. Emailing can also be done from my home page (http://www.ux1.eiu.edu/~cfmpu/).
I will do my best to answer students' questions on a daily basis.
Disabilities: If you have a documented disability, please contact me as soon as possible so we
can make necessary accommodations.